Ukraine :India has had to pull off a communication cable over Ukraine over the past few days as it tries to balance its relations. With Moscow and the West.
Delhi’s first statement to the UN Security Council (UNSC) did not name any country directly. But said it was regrettable that calls from the international community to provide an opportunity. For dialogue were not listened to.
However, he stopped criticizing Russia. And before the UNSC voted on a draft UN resolution condemning the attack. Delhi faced calls from Russia, the US and Ukraine “to do the right thing.”
Issued public appeals for Delhi
Ukraine and Russia have even issued public appeals for Delhi to make a clear decision. India chose to abstain from voting but a careful reading of its statement suggested. That it move forward and indirectly asked Moscow to respect international law.
India spoke of the importance of “UN Charter, international law. And respect for the sovereignty and integrity of regional territories”, adding that “all member states. It need to respect these principles in finding a constructive way forward”.
But India’s decision to abstain has raised questions, especially in the West.About whether the world’s largest democracy should have made a clear decision.
There are no good options
Former Indian strategist JN Misra says India has “the worst and worst options to choose from”.
“One cannot lean on both sides at the same time. India has not said any country, which shows that it will not be against Moscow. India should have used tactics in choosing the side and it has done so,” he adds.
There are several reasons for India’s demand for a diplomatic balance over Ukraine.
Most importantly the time-tested defense relations between India and Moscow.
Russia continues to be India’s largest arms supplier despite its share of 49% from 70%. Due to India’s decision to diversify its portfolio and improve domestic defense production.
Also, Russia provides equipment such as the S-400 missile protection system. That gives India significant strategic sanctions against China and Pakistan, and that is why it has continued with this order despite threats of US sanctions.
Protective clothing is essential
Moreover, it is difficult for Delhi to ignore the decades of history of political cooperation with Russia on a few issues. Moscow has blocked UNSC resolutions against Kashmir earlier in the dispute to help India keep it a two state issue.
In this context, India seems to be following its popular strategy of disagreement and encouraging dialogue to resolve problems.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director at the Wilson Center for Psychiatry. Says India’s position is not surprising because it is in line with past strategies.
He adds that Delhi “does not seem comfortable with what is happening in Ukraine. But is unlikely to change its stance”.
Delhi has chosen strong words in the UNSC
“It will not be able to do that right now because of its own defense and political needs,” he said. Despite adding that Delhi has chosen strong words in the UNSC to show. That he is not comfortable with the situation in Ukraine.
India also has the difficult task of trying to evacuate 20,000 citizens, mostly students, from Ukraine.
Former Indian strategist Anil Triguniyat, who worked in Moscow and Libya. Where he oversaw the deportation of Indian civilians during the 2011 uprising, says security guarantees are needed on all fronts to continue the successful evacuation.
“India cannot take sides in endangering the safety of its citizens. Moreover, it sees a complete picture that includes keeping channels open to everyone,” he adds.
In that sense, India is in a unique position as. It is one of the few countries with good relations with Washington and Moscow.
Narendra Modi has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin . And Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar has held talks with officials in Washington.
Mr Modi also held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Mr Triguniyat said India had done well to keep the lines of communication open on both sides.
“India did not directly criticize Russia. But it does not mean that India does not pay attention to the suffering of the Ukrainian people. It used a balanced approach. directly but not that India has ignored the suffering of the Ukrainian people. “he added.
But if Washington and its European allies continue to impose severe sanctions on Russia. India may find it difficult to continue doing business with Moscow.
The US seems to understand India’s situation at the moment. But there are no guarantees that it will continue to do so.
President Joe Biden
When asked by U.S. President Joe Biden recently about the state of India, he did not give a definite answer. “We will have negotiations with India [through Ukraine]. We have not resolved that fully,” he said.
The issue of penalties in connection with the purchase of S-400s is still ongoing. The Counting America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. Caatsa was introduced in 2017 to target Russia, Iran and North Korea with economic and political sanctions. It also prevents any country from signing security agreements with these nations.
Washington has not yet promised a compromise even before Russia invades Ukraine. And experts believe the issue could be a negotiator between India and the US.
Meanwhile, Moscow may apply its own pressure. Which includes strengthening ties with India’s rival Pakistan, if it sees a change in Delhi’s plans.
Russia has welcomed India’s growing US-US relationship over the past two decades. But Ukraine is a red line that does not want Delhi to cross.
Mr Kugelman says such points will only come if the Ukrainian conflict continues. For a long time and ends up creating a bipolar world.
“Let’s hope it doesn’t happen. But if it does, India’s foreign policy will be severely tested,” he said.
